A little more real-world influenced, Google CEO Eric Schmidt has some down-to-earth predictions for the next five years which he discussed during a 45-minute interview at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2009 last week.
ReadWriteWebâ€™s Marshall Kirkpatrick posted a 6-minute video clip from Schmidtâ€™s full interview â€“ using a nifty tool called TubeChop â€“ and in his post captured very nicely indeed the essence of Schmidtâ€™s thinking that he articulates in that clip:
- Five years from now the internet will be dominated by Chinese-language content.
- Today’s teenagers are the model of how the web will work in five years – they jump from app to app to app seamlessly.
- Five years is a factor of ten in Moore’s Law, meaning that computers will be capable of far more by that time than they are today.
- Within five years there will be broadband well above 100MB in performance – and distribution distinctions between TV, radio and the web will go away.
- "We’re starting to make significant money off of YouTube", content will move towards more video.
- "Real time information is just as valuable as all the other information, we want it included in our search results."
- There are many companies beyond Twitter and Facebook doing real time.
- "We can index real-time info now – but how do we rank it?"
- It’s because of this fundamental shift towards user-generated information that people will listen more to other people than to traditional sources. Learning how to rank that "is the great challenge of the age." Schmidt believes Google can solve that problem.
Interesting reactions in the comments to Marshallâ€™s post with some alternative views on Schmidtâ€™s future-vision.
In relation to point number 2 about teenagers, Schmidt also said one more thing:
Talk to a teenager about how they consume information. And remember â€“ in five years from now, that’s your employee.
Thereâ€™s the future.