Here’s what it looks like:
What I find especially interesting is where on the hype cycle some of these technologies are, especially seeing their current and predicted positions along the Technology Trigger and cresting the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
What will languish in the Trough of Disillusionment, and what will emerge onto the Slope of Enlightenment?
Gartnerâ€™s own summary is this:
[…] “Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications,” said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow. “Later – in between two and five years – cloud computing and service-oriented architecture (SOA), which is moving up the Slope of Enlightenment, will deliver transformation in terms of driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT. Finally, public virtual worlds, which are suffering from disillusionment after their peak of hype in 2007, will in the long term represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest.”
So in one of my areas of interest, Gartner says that Web 2.0 has a good chance of achieving the promise that is currently seen as so much hype and so is likely to emerge out of the trough, when it does get there, fairly quickly. Thatâ€™s good news.
There are a couple of very interesting new entrants for 2008, notably microblogging – think of Twitter, Friendfeed and the like – green IT and cloud computing, the latter especially at the heart of growing commentary and opinion, what some would undoubtedly call hype.
How does all this compare to what Gartner has been predicting in recent years?
I’ve been closely following the hype cycles for 2006 and 2007, and it is interesting to compare 2008 with the predictions for the two preceding years:
It’s particularly notable to see the short journey Web 2.0 has taken in these three years, from its position at the Peak of Inflated Expectations in 2006, down the slope towards the Trough of Disillusionment in 2007 where it largely still is in 2008.
Note Gartner’s prediction, though, as I mentioned above.
And note, too, where corporate blogging has gone in these three years – rapidly through the trough and onto the Slope of Enlightenment.
Wikis, too – now on that slope.
I think one technology to keep a close eye on is green IT which, as Gartner says, will likely gain momentum in tandem with broader and growing concerns about climate change and environmental issues.
Anything notable that strikes you when looking at these three years?